DOLLAR-YEN: Penned into a Y81.00-40 range with rally.

DOLLAR-YEN: Penned into a Y81.00-40 range with recent rally fading at
Y81.30 as euro-dollar bounces back through $1.3900. Rate trades
Y81.13/15

DOLLAR-YEN: Penned into a Y81.00-40 range with rally.

DOLLAR-YEN: Penned into a Y81.00-40 range with recent rally fading at
Y81.30 as euro-dollar bounces back through $1.3900. Rate trades
Y81.13/15

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Risks Prevail.........

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Downside Risks Prevail
RES 4: Y83.39/67 Kijun line, Resistance line from May 5
RES 3: Y82.60 21-day moving average
RES 2: Y82.11 Low 7 Oct
RES 1: Y81.61/83 Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud, Hourly high
CURRENT LEVEL: Y81.29
SUP 1: Y80.83/84 Support line from 14 Oct, Low 21 Oct
SUP 2: Y80.37 Daily Bollinger band base
SUP 3: Y80.20 Support line 20 May
SUP 4: Y79.88 2.0% Moving Average envelope
COMMENTARY: Risk remains on fresh 15-year lows below Y80.84 after
failure to sustain gains above the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud.
The daily studies whilst showing bull-divergence signals, are no longer
looking as oversold. Risk is seen to the daily Bollinger band base at
Y80.37 and declining 5-month support line at Y80.20.

Canadian dollar October 22, 2010

USD/Canadian dollar to trade with risks skewed higher. Pair buoyed by positions adjustment before weekend and G20 meeting; weaker commodity and oil prices (Nymex crude settled down $1.98 yesterday at $80.56/bbl); surprise 0.1% drop in Canada September composite index of leading indicators (vs forecast for 0.2% gain). But USD/CAD gains tempered by positive global risk sentiment. Data focus: 1100 GMT Canada September CPI, 1230 GMT Canada August retail sales. USD/CAD daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish. Resistance at 1.0303 (yesterday''''s high); breach would expose upside to 1.0348 (Wednesday''''s high), then 1.0372-1.0379 band (Tuesday''''s high-Sept. 23 high), 1.0509 (Sept. 8 high), 1.0569 (Sept. 3 high) and 1.0672 (Aug. 31 reaction high). Support at 1.0163-1.0159 band (yesterday''''s low-Tuesday''''s low); breach would expose downside to 1.0075 (previous cap set Oct. 14), then 1.0008 (Oct. 15 low) and 0.9980 (5-month low set Oct. 14).

USD/Swiss Franc To October 22, 2010

USD/Swiss Franc to trade with risks skewed higher. Pair underpinned by USD short-covering before weekend and G20 meeting, short-CHF carry trades on lower risk aversion; sharp drop in headline balance of ZEW-Credit Suisse survey of economic expectations to minus 27.5 in October from minus 5.1 in September. But USD/CHF gains tempered by expectations of more QE measures from U.S. Federal Reserve. CHF sentiment also soothed by increase in Swiss trade surplus to CHF1.7 billion in September. Daily chart positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, 5-day moving average staging bullish crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 0.9688 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 0.9753 (Tuesday''''s high), then 0.9789 (Oct. 4 high), 0.9843 (Oct. 1 high), 0.9877 (Sept. 28 high) and 0.9930 (previous base set Sept. 14). Support at 0.9607 (yesterday''''s low); breach would expose downside to 0.9570 (Wednesday''''s low), then 0.9538 (Monday''''s low), 0.9481 (Oct. 15 low), 0.9463 (record low set Oct. 14) and psychological 0.9400.

Pound dollar October 22, 2010

Pound dollar to trade lower. Pair undermined by USD short-covering before weekend and G20 meeting; surprise 0.2% drop in UK September retail sales (vs forecast for 0.7% gain); concerns over negative impact of government''''s tough austerity program on UK economy; comments from UK chancellor Osborne and MPC member Miles that further QE monetary stimulus may be needed. But GBP/USD losses tempered by expectations of more QE measures from U.S. Federal Reserve. GBP/USD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics falling from overbought, 5-day moving average staged bearish crossover against 15-day. Support at 1.5684 (yesterday''''s low), then at 1.5652 (Wednesday''''s low, matching 55-day moving average); breach would expose downside to 1.5501 (Sept. 21 low), then 1.5434 (100-day moving average), 1.5343 (Sept. 10 low, near 200-day moving average) and 1.5294 (Sept. 7 trough). Resistance at 1.5788 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.5848 (yesterday''''s high), then 1.5878 (Wednesday''''s high), 1.5940 (Tuesday''''s high), 1.6003 (Monday''''s high) and 1.6104 (8-month high set Oct. 15).